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Will India’s tiny constitutional lab boil again ?

NDTV might have declared a happy ending to the election saga in Goa, but for anyone who has closely followed its politics over the last few years,the writing is on the wall - Mid-term polls might be here even before the silver nitrate on our fingers is washed out completely.

The party positions are as follows :

_________________________________________________

Congress - 16

BJP - 14

NCP - 3

MGP - 2

SGF - 2

UGDP - 1

INDEPENDENTS including Pratapsingh Rane’s ‘independent’ son - 2

_________________________________________________

Thus the Congress and its ally the NCP along with their ‘independent’ son come to a tally of 20.

Thus the comfortable road predicted by NDTV involves the support of Anil Salgaocar, an independent candidate who’s princess has become a part of the scenery of Candolim beach, untouched by 2 governments.

21 may seem like the magic number mathematically but is not so in politics. One of the 21 will have to be made the Speaker. This would leave the Assembly split into 20-20 MLAs each on the Government and opposition sides. In such a scenario a casting vote by the Speaker would be required for every single action by the legislature. Thus every passing day would witness a vote of confidence / no-confidence of sorts.

The other interesting development is the fact that the NCP is headless in the Assembly with the defeat of Dr. Willy D’souza. With pre-poll alliances being foreign to the 10th Schedule of the Indian Constitution, there is nothing stopping self-styled politician Micky Pacheco (upon whom the mantle of the NCP has fallen) from pulling the rug himself or perhaps on the instructions of a frustrated Dr. D’souza.

Unless the Cong-NCP alliance can get more of the others to give it the much needed comfort, to me it all seems to be the perfect recipe for mid-term polls.

The highlights of this elections to me were 2 :

1. The defeat of at least 10 heavyweights including 3 ex-CMs ; Wilfred D’souza, Fransico Sardinha and Luizinho Faleiro.

2. The psephological disaster that NDTV’s program And the winner is was; At least 2 of the ‘psephologists’ namely Dr. Pranoy Roy and Srinivasan Jain behaved as if they were born and brought up in Venezuela and had been forced to cover the Goa elections. Which person in his right mind would give a projection and declare victory for a party after declaration of 6 results in a 40 member Assembly ? They rarely got names of candidates right (spoken & printed), flashed wrong results of vital constituencies for hours apart from re-christening some regional parties with impunity through the program. I would have forgiven them if they were sitting in Goa but I can’t forgive someone who is sitting in a studio in Delhi with a picture of a goan beach in the background acting drunk on feni. All I can say is that they either take Goa and the elections here seriously or not cover them at all. Dorab Supariwala was the only saving grace with a substantial semblance of psephology in his takes.

Goa has contributed to India’s constitutional jurisprudence in a big way with leading SC and HC decisions on defections, the role of Speakers, pro-tem Speakers, dismissal and appointment of CMs and the like. With a ’seasoned’ Governor in S.C.Jamir at the helm in Raj Bhavan, one can expect more experiments from this tiny constitutional laboratory making their way to the Supreme Court in the near future.

9 Responses

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Hi Ninad

Long time reader of your astute take on legal matters though commenting for the first time

Excellent post as always

Gaffes galore , absolute lack of homework and fumbling anchors .Even if u leave aside all these obvious facts alone,it was pretty clear that Prannoy Roy has thrown away facade of neutrality that he used to project.

CNN-IBN fared no better.No sooner than the counting began,Rajdeep gleefully declared that Congress is racing ahead .Suddenly the script changed to ‘close contest’.And the man heaved a sign of relief when it was clear that Congress managed to get past BJP by 2 seats to emerge as the single largest party

You should learn it from these channels on how to project fractured verdict as ‘victories’

BTW it gives a scarry feeling that small state could have 15 CM’S in 17 yrs.And atleast 7 CM’S/Ex-CM’S in the fray this time

1 PRASANNA June 05, 2007 5:26 pm

Hi Ninad,

Yesterday i saw news on the goa elections. Today after reading more in the newspapers, I think that serious instability which can lead to mid term polls awaits. I was not sure whether I was right, as I searchd on the internet i came across this blog. I must say that ur blog is a ‘”SUPREME COURT UPDATE”!!!!
I would like to say that the election line of BJP (save goa for future) did not win the popular sovereign’s support. We all know that the goa regional plan which was denotified after strong opposition gave a tough time to the Congress in Goa.
The voters hav probably forgotten the environmental aspects while voting. It is significant to note that besides the Tribal Bill, which the Parliament passed, there are few exmples of the environment becoming the major concern of many political parites.
Does a party with a green agenda (mind you green here stands 4 environment!!!!!!) have any future in India? Dr. Oscar Rebello once noted that environmental damage most importantly affects the poor because the rich can afford to get away from it.

2 Arjun Natarajan June 06, 2007 6:16 am

Hi Ninad,
I fully agree with what you have said in the latter part of your article. However, we both know that though Congress + NCP + 2 independents = 21, we may well see the other regional parties such as MGP, UGDP and SGF lending support to the Congress, not out of love for the congress, but rather out of the fact that their whole point of getting elected is to be in the government occupying some ministry as thats the only way they can REALLY LOOT GOA.

Further, even if the regional parties do not support the Congress, so long as the congress has the support of the NCP and the 2 independents, it will still be able to get their Bills passed as the opposition would still be one less than the government (BJP + SGF + MGP + UGDP = 14 + 2 + 2 + 1 = 19). Thus, it would be 20 against 19. But I am quite sure that the Congress will have sleepless nights as, if at any time, even one of the independents supporting it, decides to oppose a particular bill, that will be the end of Congress rule as the opposition will then become 20.

I fully agree with you that NDTV’s coverage was disgusting. They gave wrong results, wrong names, wrong party symbols etc. And the way they were talking was as if every goan was a drunkard obsessed with drinking Feni. In fact when Prannoy Roy was passing a comment about Goa and Feni, there was a point where he turns to his left looking surprised and asks Jain the question - EVEN FOR BREAKFAST? . This only shows that Srinivasan must have passed a comment about goans drinking Feni for breakfast.

The sad truth is that you and I both know that Goans are not drunks. They do drink for occasions but within limits. It is the people who come from the other states of Goa who loose control and become drunk as they cannot believe that booze is so cheap in Goa while it is very expensive in their states.

Also, if one goes to the Tavern’s, you will find that most of the people there are non goans.

Anyway, keep up the good work. Love your articles

3 Gustavo Monteiro June 06, 2007 1:23 pm

Hi Ninad

enjoyed your post. a great writeup on the circus which took place in NDTV(CNN IBN fared no better). the last bit on goa’s importance in the constitutional framework was the icing on the cake. the stark reality was brought out in a humorous way.

A new principle can be added in Murphy’s law - the smaller the state, greater the chaos and your writeup about goa is a perfect illustration of the above.

4 Karthik Rajan June 06, 2007 1:24 pm

Prasanna & Karthik Rajan,

Nice to know that I do not stand alone in my views on NDTV’s jaundice eyed reporting of political news.

The goan addition to Murphy’s laws sounds like a good maxim to be kept in mind when it comes to elections :)

Arjun,

I don’t really agree with your analysis for the reasons behind this fractured mandate or a pro-congress mandate as you perhaps think it is.

To me arguments of principles would not have worked where it came to personalities in any case considering the small size of constituencies.

If you see the stats you will realize that major upsets (except for Navelim) have been due to triangular fights.

Thus, to me, what the BJP ought to have done was to ally with the MGP and/or the SGF to consolidate the anti-congress vote.

Perhaps it’s not too late with the inevitable mid-term polls ;-)

5 Ninad June 06, 2007 1:49 pm

Well, it seems like *you* have done your homework well. I am curious, are you from Goa yourself ?

6 Abhijit June 08, 2007 12:31 pm

I am indeed.

7 Ninad June 10, 2007 4:36 am

[...] for the Congress in Goa and the ‘rejection of communalism’ by the people of Goa, my assessment right after the polls has turned [...]

Ninad
I am reading your post first time> my friend send me your other article on Jamir.
I dont know why everbody calls India as world oldest democracy! it should be labelled as Worlds leading Democratic Dictatorship!
After the British left, they were the Neo colonial masters!
Sadly for Goans,who fought for so called Liberation,We were recolonised by DELHI! who treated us worst than portuguese!And the saddest of all things is, that goans have been taking it lying down for year! The only way they managed to do this is by raising the boggey of communalism. which is and never had been a problem. In fact, if ever it becomes a issue, congress with their partners in media will be responsible.
The only way you can you can achieve true democracy will be to get rid of Congress for good and i hope, after Bjp victory in Gujrat, Indians will see some sence.
The best way for Goa would be to demand Autonomy and have a regional party! goa is a DEVELOPED state and not a backward state– we will become one, if congress rules Goa for couple of years as it is in their own interest to keep the people ignorant and poor so that they can control them-the marxist theory adopted byAfrican leaders!
cheers
Simo

9 simo January 19, 2008 11:02 am

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